And now … this week’s Top End Trends (really)

The best laid plans …

That don’t include a repeat of the last Top End Trends.

Apologies. That was not meant to happen.

Now, to return to regular programming…

2019. Are you confused yet?

The divide is stark. Down where price trends are counted in thousands, things are looking up (prices, that is, although from our perspective, things looking down is a happier prospect). In fact, it’s gone right over the top. Tomorrow? Is there no tomorrow? 

Then there’s where we live — where trends are measured in millions. Here, nothing could be more different. 

But that’s not what the agents are saying

Yes. Well. What did you expect?

If the market is so up, where are the $15m+ sales? You won’t need two hands to count them.

If the market is so up, why are agents inventing ever-more un-needed complications to try and convince people that it’s all too hard to simply buy and sell.

If the market is so up, what explains the antics we’re seeing at EOIs.

“You don’t like this forecast? I’ve got another.”

The banks say to expect a boom next year. From where?

Property forecasters fly blind with only one certainty — sooner or later they’ll hit the ground. They don’t speak to buyers, they don’t speak to sellers. They data mine and unearth what was.

Agents are saying … let’s not talk about agents.

Client shoots ducks in a row

All the ducks were there. The clients wanted to downsize, the agent found the perfect apartment and expected a listing for the old home to follow.

Then came today’s papers. His clients took another look.

“Everything will be up next year? Let’s move then.”

But … But … But …

What’s up now is down the ladder. When the market moves you can almost bet on the move starting at the top and moving down.

There’s only one thing certain about next year: It will be another story.

Who hit the pause button?

The leaps and bounds going on down the ladder mean next to nothing the higher you go. To start with, every home is its own market and even then there’s nothing going on.

There’s an outbreak of FOMO. Buyers ready to put their hands up because they’re scared of missing out and sellers who won’t sell until there’s something to buy.

Same old stalemate.

Then what’s working? Maps in the maze

Well away from the headlines there are significant offers being made on behalf of buyers who have answers to sellers’ questions. 

There are pathways through mazes but stock-standard EOIs and auctions are risky dead-ends. They’re limping toward year’s end.

Thermometer of one

Armadale, private auction. 20,000 sq. ft. Not expensive at $10m and still no 10% premium on offer.

Reality rules.

The shock of the new

New house hits the market. Feeding frenzy. Agents rave. Vendors’ expectations shoot up like Lance Armstrong on a mountain.

Then … run out of breath.

The frenzy moves on to the next new thing and another wallflower blooms.

Flat tyres

Over-inflated. The RACV tells you not to do that. It’s dangerous.

Happened again on Saturday. Four bidders in prospect at around $4m. The numbers we ran said that didn’t add up.

Guess what: No bids.

And now, the end is near…

Unless something happens that demands to be told, this is the last Top End Trends for 2019.

It’s been … a year.

We hope you enjoyed the ride; and wish you all the best for the road ahead.

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