In Summer, when we talk Top End, we talk beach. If two is company, tide-watchers are a crowd.
So where is the tide in 2026?
Now? Still ebbing. And it’s everyone’s guess when it will turn.
Transactions are scarce. New opportunities are thinner than sunscreen in the glovebox. From Flinders to Lorne, January offered very little — and a near-record amount of nothing happened.
Ebb Tide on the Coast
If you’re standing on the sand or holding a coastal asset, the water is still receding.
- Land Tax.
- Land Tax.
- Land Tax.
Agents: “We’ve got offers.”
No. They haven’t. What they hope to have is a really gullible you
Unless a seller meets the market head-on, nothing happens.
And unless it’s an outrageously good truffle, buyers aren’t chasing anyone.
The urgency? Gone.
If It Didn’t Happen at the Beach…
If nothing moved on the coast, nothing moved in leafy Melbourne either.
Buyers are:
- On holiday
- Gone walkabout
- Or dealing with bigger issues
Those who were active in 2025 are languishing in 2026.
Price reductions are nearing the inflection point — where deals might happen. But if you couldn’t sell in ’25, 2026 isn’t the Tooth Fairy riding in on a unicorn.
- Early Easter.
- Global uncertainty.
- Trump vs The People.
It’s a classic standoff.
Sellers think 2024.
Buyers think 2026.
That gap is a gulf.
What Is Moving?
Apartments. Apartments. Apartments.
- Security.
- Lock up and leave.
- Concierge over courtyard.
Downsizers, families, business owners — happy to go up, not out.
But the real litmus test is always the same:
Land. Land. Land.
Litmus Test: 2 St James Place, Toorak
AAA land. As good as it gets.
Quoted $10–11m.
EOI: 17th March.
No excuses.
That result will tell you exactly where the depth of buyer pool sits.
Builders, Architects. And Time
Conversations with architects and builders are revealing:
Not much pipeline work.
Why?
No T.I.M.E.
Buyers are impatient.
They don’t want the pain of building.
They want finished.
Apartment, anyone?
Industry Stress Cracks
Tight market. Thin transactions. Pressure builds.
When a vendor gives an agent the exclusive right to sell a home, that means hands-off for all the others.
Now?
Rogue agents, new kids on the block, conspiring with gullible owners. Secret inspections. Side deals.
If you’re a buyer, who is what?
A certain material is approaching the fan.
It’s going to get messy.
The Legend of Pinocchio (February Chapter)
Toorak’s resident Pinocchio continues to entertain.
You have to feel sorry for the vendor who appointed him. Rumour has it, over Christmas, over a big lunch, a buyer rings:
“I can’t talk to you , I’m having lunch – here’s the owner’s number.”
Property sells. Pinocchio murders another steak.
Easter Truffle Hunt
They’re rare, but they’re there.
Really.