“Is the Winter Glacier Thawing… or Just Cracking?”
After a long cold hibernation, the Top End might just be stretching its limbs, but don’t hold your breath if you’re expecting a flurry of deals and a Spring surge.
Yes, there are signs of a thaw but it’s mostly off-market and mostly price-led. Buyers remain cautious and the volume isn’t there.
What’s moving? Things that have dropped — in price and expectation
Green Shoots… in the Shadows
The action’s all off-market where price does the heavy lifting. On-market optimism? Mostly figments of agents’ imaginations.
The Thousand-Day Sale
After three years on the market, Moule Ave finally sold for a cartload less than the hope. Offshore buyer? Crypto billionaire? Not exactly — to the next-door neighbour.
Imagine that. Save the squillion on the local and international campaigns and pop in for a quick chat next door.
Price Sensitivity is Everything
Inner-city home listed at $8m in February finally sells six months later — for around $6.5m. The takeaway? Time doesn’t magic overpricing.
Expressions of Interest: The Great Mirage
There’s talk of five parties circling and then comes the deadline and it’s lonely as a rock with no shag.
Lesson for new players: Beware what you cannot confirm. The bidder you go up against may be right there in your mirror.
Agent Shuffle: Musical Chairs in Designer Suits
Listings dry up, chairs get itchy. A few agents jump ship hoping a rebrand will fix everything. One outfit has reportedly dropped $500k on a showroom office — but if you can’t source listings, glitz won’t save you.
And the record goes to…
Agents get called many things. But “The Worst Date of My Life” is a novel entry in the Hall of Shame.
Is it time for a dedicated dating app “SwipeRight Real Estate”?
$100 Million Comedy Festival
An “International Buyer” reportedly looking to spend $80–$100 million in Toorak triggered a feeding frenzy of agents, reps and vendors singing in the streets and counting profits-to-be-had.
Or had not.
One smart agent (hi!) finally asked:
- FIRB?
- Residency?
- Taxes?
Poof.
Peter Pan doesn’t live here.
Underquoting: The Reckoning
For 25 years we’ve said it’s a disgrace. Now, with data in the daylight, the industry’s blushing and Consumer Affairs is still… where?
In a twist, REIV now wants auction reserves disclosed.
If it happens?
Auctions vanish. EOIs multiply like mushrooms. Transparency disappears again.And Pinocchio runs into a very hard truth.
Spring Takes A Rain Check
Maybe listings in November, not now.
Death, Divorce and Downsizing will still reveal some needed (and realistically priced) sales, but that’s about it.
The rest are waiting and watching.
Gratuitous Advice
Beware shadows pretending to be bidders.
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The Top End Market? The Usual
We’ve been saying it since 1997. At the top end, there is no market. Every home is unique. Every home is its own market.
Each begins with its fundamentals: The place, the home, the demand. No advocate or agent can change those. As a buyer or seller, what can change is the story that is told.
Sellers’ stories are in every real estate ad and every nudge, wink and trust me from an agent.
Advocates’ stories are, or should be, re-framing sellers’ understanding of what they have to sell. The reality check they need and the emotional persuasion to accept it.
It’s there that agreement is reached.
It’s there that two winners are born.