Living In Fragile Times

The trouble with nothing conclusive to report is there is no point reporting it.

So we have spared you.

And we would stop right there if it were not for… rumblings

Is the ground shifting just a little?

Is that a harbinger of things to come, or another false alarm?

Our Treasurer is doing his best to talk the market down. The Reserve Bank is his little echo.

Yet a lot of what we’re hearing suggests there is no down. Gone. Nothing there.

There are some who seem to suggest that Melbourne real estate will send everyone from Archimedes to Einstein to Stephen Hawking back to their drawing boards.

Gravity? There is no such thing.

Balance On A Tightrope?

Who needs balance when nothing can fall?

A headline in The Age: “RBA fears new kind of risk.”

Let us get personal. This is what it can look like.

Brighton family. The usual. Two parents, both working, 1.34 children.

Bought their residence (nobody buys a house in Brighton) four years ago, paid $2.5 million, since appreciated so their assets are looking good.

Income? Stuck where it was.

Needs? 1.34 kids in private schools. Need to be ferried there in recent BMW (of course). Holidays? Have to. But the caravan ain’t going to do it. Think Europe, Falls, Noosa, etc.

Nothing they touch is getting any cheaper, but their ability to pay for it all is being stretched further and further.

Can you hear a tightrope twanging?

But it’s not only them. It’s all over the private school belt.

And that’s what’s keeping the RBA up at night.

Hen’s Teeth. The Usual.

You’re looking and not finding? You’re not alone.

You’re seeing what is selling, selling for prices beyond reason?


The underlying driver is still lack of choice in Salubria.

We’re still seeing crowds at inspections for homes starting at $8 million. We’re still seeing reserves demolished by five or six bidders.

The exception (told you so, over a year ago) is in new apartments. Per metre, prices are falling.

Condolences to those who signed up off the plan.

Meanwhile, In The Waiting Room…

The Seriously Top End.

Some stalled action off-market, including two we can hint at.

One is still before the FIRB. Questions may have arisen.

The other had an 8 when the agent promised 10-12 and those in the market knew better.

Outing The Under-Quoters

We kicked and screamed and were generally not pleasant and at last new laws are with us.

But old habits die hard.

Can you hear us, J?

Your time is up.

And about time, too.

Know Thy Use-By Date

There is something of a generational change underway at a number of agencies. Some are farewelling older hands who are cropping up again where experience is thought to count.

Truth is, many clients are more comfortable dealing with people of similar ages. If the tide is going out, it’s wise to be looking for a safe harbour.

Winter Chill Freezes Everything


Regardless of what some pundits will pund, it’s no longer so.

But old clichés rarely die.


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