There’s a chorus of journalists:
- What’s the temperature out there?
- Is the market really going backwards?
And eight would-be vendors in a week:
- Should I sell?
- Do I need to sell before I buy?
- What happens if I can’t sell?
There is anxiousness.
At the Top End, a quick movement can be millions of dollars. No one wants to be left standing. It’s pivot time.
The litmus test is simple
You.
And us.
Last week we were asked to buy a property at around $20 million.
It’s our job.
It’s why we answer the phone.
And it hurt to say it, but we had to say…
Don’t do it.
The way this market is moving, it could easily fall another 5% in three months.
That’s a $1 million free kick.
Anyone playing in the Big Fat Toorak Paddock knows it’s seen more price reductions than any other section of the market. Yet even after those reductions, many properties remain unsold.
Failed campaigns litter the streets like sodden Autumn leaves.
Agents who claimed to have offers six weeks ago are now hoping for 10% less.
Read between the dots
The cries of “multiple interest” have too often become multiple failures, with too many vendors praying for a Divine Saviour to appear at the eleventh hour.
The problem?
The buyer.
The buyer is harder to round up than cats.
And for the first time in a long time, this market belongs entirely to them.
(Hallelujah.)
June ’26 Buyers
1. Cash Buyers
Rare.
Unpredictable.
Looking at 5%+ bank interest rates and watching a market retreat in front of them.
Most are waiting for a 10% win.
2. The “I Need To Sell First” Buyer
Looking for long settlements.
The smarter ones are beginning to realise they may need to lower expectations on the home they own before buying the next one.
In other words…
They don’t have to have it.
3. The Overseas or Expat Buyer
Non-existent.
Rarer than the Tooth Fairy.
June ’26 Vendors
1.
Trying to reconcile what they were promised with what the market is now.
2.
Trying to work out why they received no offers.
3.
Trying to work out why they wanted to sell in the first place.
June and July 2026 may prove to be a vendor’s worst nightmare.
The smart ones know there is no quick fix.
June ’26 Agents
The old hands have seen it before.
They know which levers to pull.
The newer arrivals, those who have only known the last fifteen years?
Toys are flying out of cribs.
Panic is beginning to show.
Some are wondering whether joining the buyers’ advocates may be the go.
Gratuitous advice:
If you can’t hack it as an agent, you’ll crash as an advocate.
AUSTRAC Is Coming
“We’re responsible for preventing, detecting and responding to criminal abuse of the financial system to protect the community from serious and organised crime.”
A commendable objective.
But chances are, particularly in the early days, it will arrive wrapped in red tape.
The question will become:
“Where did you get the money?”
The casino?
Really?
Expect shock.
Expect disbelief.
Expect frustration from local families who have spent decades building the means to buy a trophy home.
In a nutshell?
It’s beginning to look like the Perfect Storm.
Our advice?
Take shelter.
Tread carefully.
Seek expert advice.
And if you can…
Do nothing.
It’s looking like a fun Spring.